Andrew Marshall: Futurist-in-chief
DARPA is not the only Pentagon outfit in which bold, out-of-the-box ideas and concepts are tested; the Office of Net Assessment (ONA), led since its 1973 inception by Andrew Marshall, should be recognized as well for its original work
Some jobs do not have term limits. Two examples: J. Edgar Hoover served as director of the FBI for thirty-seven years (1935-72). Andrew Marshall has served as director of the Pentagon’s Office of Net Assessment (ONA) for thirty-six years — since its inception in 1973. Now in his late 80s, he still holds the position.
We often write about the creative and restless minds at DARPA, but we should note that there are innovative and out-of-the box studies coming out of ONA. TPM’s Justin Elliot offers a list of some of the studies written by ONA. From the hundreds of studies listed, here is a sample:
- Chinese and Russian Asymmetrical Strategies for Space Dominance (2010 - 2030)
- Contradictions and Continuities: The Changing Moral Education Landscape
- Role Of High Power Microwave Weapons In Future Intercontinental Conventional War
- Europe 2025: Mounting Security Challenges Amidst Declining Competitiveness
- Biometaphor For The Body Politic
- Minorities in Turkish-Iranian Relations
- Preserving American Primacy
- Fighting A Nuclear-Armed Regional Opponent: Is Victory Possible?
ONA specializes in looking at issues “20 to 30 years in the future,” according to Jan van Tol, who served at ONA before becoming a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments. Van Tol says ONA has no more than fifteen staffers. Most of the work is done by outside contractors. Despite its size, the influence of the office has been vast since its creation in 1973 by Marshall.
Fred Kaplan, in his 2005 book Daydream Believers: How a Few Great Ideas Wrecked American Power, profiles Marshall, nick-named the Yoda of the Pentagon. Kaplan explains the key to Marshall’s longevity — and his influence:
he built a far-flung network of acolytes and loyalists: officers whose unconventional projects he had encouraged and helped to fund; analysts whose work he had sponsored and whose ideas he had helped form; and high-ranking officials, as well as committee chairmen on Capitol Hill, who simply valued having a man of ideas so high up in the Pentagon.
You do not often see individuals who hold their position for nearly four decades. Marshall — some call him the futurist-in-chief — is one of the very few. In addition to the relevant sections in Kaplan’s book, read more about him in Douglas McGray’s “The Marshall Plan” (February 2003).
