Countdown toward Israeli attack on Iran's nuclear facilities has begun

satellite had been expected and was clearly timed to coincide with the 30th anniversary of the Iranian revolution. Ahmadinejad said the satellite was launched to spread “monotheism, peace and justice” in the world.

The launch should cause alarm in the West because of fears the technology could be used to make a long-range missile, possibly with a nuclear warhead. French foreign ministry spokesman Eric Chevallier said France was “very concerned” about the launch. “We can’t help but link this to the very serious concerns about the development of military nuclear capability,” he said.

A spokeswoman for the U.K.’s Foreign Office told AFP news agency it was still investigating the launch so could not give a detailed response. She added: “Concerns about Iran are considerable given that it’s in breach of five UN resolutions relating to its nuclear and ballistic missile program.”

Yesterday’s launch was but the latest in a series of steps Iran has taken to improve its nuclear weapons delivery capabilities. The BBC reports that last August Iran said it had successfully launched a rocket capable of carrying its first domestically built satellite, having in February launched a low-orbit research rocket as part of preparations for the satellite launch. That launch marked the inauguration of a new space center, at an unidentified desert location, which included an underground control station and satellite launch pad. The White House called the 2008 launch “unfortunate,” warning it would further isolate Iran from the global community.

In February 2007, Iran said it had launched a rocket capable of reaching space — before it made a parachute-assisted descent to Earth. In October 2005 a Russian rocket launched Iran’s first satellite, the Sina-1, which carried photographic and telecommunications equipment.

The view here is that this latest development brings closer the day of an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities. Those who follow internal political and strategic debates in Israel would know that Defense Minister Ehud Barak and Chief of Staff Gabi Ashkenazi had opposed the Gaza campaign — and were also pushing hard for a peace agreement with Syria — because both see Iran as an existential threat to Israel. Both argue that to prepare for and address this threat, Israel must not be distracted by issues such as Hamas rockets — which are a nuisance but not a meaningful threat to Israel — or debates over the strategic value of the Golan Heights (value which is no longer there in the age of missiles and rockets).

Hamas’s intensified rocket launches in December eventually forced Barak’s and Ashkenazi’s hands, and the two initiated a short and brutal campaign in Gaza. Even during the campaign, both Barak and Ashkenazi set modest goals for the military and called for a quick end to it (to the consternation of Prime Minister Ehud Olmert).

Now that that campaign is over, we should note two developments:

• First, Israel and Syria, with the help of Turkish mediation, were close to an agreement on territory-for-peace last September. Olmert’s resignation, the resulting Israeli elections, and the U.S. November elections meant that the agreement had to wait until this spring or summer 2009. Syrian president Bashar Assad and Walid Mualem, Syria’s foreign minister, are already on record saying that the peace talks will continue after the Israeli elections. Indeed, the very ferocity of the Syrian and Turkish reaction to the Israeli campaign in Gaza is a case of protesting too much: It is an indication that both countries want “cover” for their dealings with Israel. The likely Israel-Syria agreement — or understandings — will allow Israel to concentrate on Iran and worry less about retaliatory moves on the northern front (not only from Syria, but also from Hezbollah, which is likely to listen very carefully to what Syria expects it to do, or not to do, during an Israeli-Iranian conflict). 
• If public opinion polls are right, then the hawkish Likud leader Benjamin Netanyahu is set to win the 10 February elections in Israel. A likely coalition partner is the even-more-hawkish Israel Beiteinu party. Barak is likely to stay on as defense minister. This will be a coalition which will be even more impatient with, and more eager to do something about, Iran’s growing military capabilities than the current government. 

This may be a gloomy conclusion, but it is difficult to escape it: The countdown toward an Israeli attack on Iran nuclear facilities has begun.

Ben Frankel is editor of HS Daily Wire.