Analysis // by Ben FrankelRumor of war: Is Israel about to attack Iran?
Published 7 November 2011 There is an increasingly heated debate in Israel, accompanied by leaks from high ups in the government, about a coming Israeli military attack on Iran; four developments have created a climate more hospitable to an Israeli military action: the progress Iran has made in its effort to build nuclear weapons — and the exposure of this progress in an IAEA report due out this week; changes at the top of the Israeli national security establishment — changes which saw individuals more favorable to an attack on Iran replace individuals who were adamantly opposed to military action; growing understanding between Israel, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan; and the coming elections in the United States; these developments have convinced Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense minister Ehud Barak — both proponents of an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities — that a window has been opened for an Israeli military action against Iran
Those who follow the Israeli press — and newspapers in Europe and the United States which cover Israel — have noticed a dramatic increase in the number of both news stories related to a possible Israeli military strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities, and analytical articles and op-ed pieces supporting or opposing such an attack.
Why has an Israeli military action against Iran’s nuclear facilities — an option which has always existed in the background — made it to the surface now? The answer: four developments have contributed to convincing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense minister Ehud Barak that a window has been opened for an Israeli military action against Iran. Both leaders are proponents of a military action against Iran — and both appear determined to exploit this opening.
1. The IAEA report
Sometime this week or next, the Vienna-based UN nuclear watch-dog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) will publish a report on Iran’s nuclear activities. Unlike previous reports, this one will be much more explicit in its conclusion that Iran has been engaged in nuclear weapons-related activities for more than a decade. The IAEA report will also contain more direct evidence — aerial and satellite photographs, intelligence reports, etc. — of secret and concealed sites where Iran’s nuclear weapons-related activity is being conducted. The report will also be more explicit in highlighting the clever and disciplined campaign of obfuscation and lies which Iran has been pursuing in order to mislead the international community about its nuclear intentions.
The
Washington Post this morning
reports that “the new [
IAEA] disclosures fill out the contours of an apparent secret research program that was more ambitious, more organized and more successful than commonly suspected.”
The
Post quotes David Albright, the head of the
Institute for Science and International Security (
ISIS) and a respected analyst of nuclear issues, to say that “After 2003, money was made available [by the Iranian government] for research in areas that sure look like nuclear weapons work but were hidden within civilian institutions.” In a recent closed-door presentation, Albright, using materials made available to him by the
IAEA, said that Iran “has sufficient information to design and produce a workable implosion nuclear device” using highly enriched uranium as its fissile core.
The most worrisome elements in the report will be its discussion of progress Iran has made in mastering the triggering sequence needed for initiating a nuclear chain reaction — especially the fact
