IranCrisis deepens as third round of nuclear talks with Iran begins today in Moscow
As the delegations of the six Western powers and Iran get set to open the third round of nuclear talks in Moscow today, diplomats involved in the talks say that the coming two days of talks are not quite the last chance for a diplomatic solution to the gathering crisis, but that we are getting uncomfortably close; Western diplomats insist “that there can be no repeat of Baghdad, where [the head of the Iranian delegation, Saeed] Jalili showed readiness to orate but not to bargain, and that they are not interested in continuing ‘talks for the sake of talks’”
Iran nears last chance in nuclear talks today in Moscow // Source: nasimonline.ir
The third round of talks between Iran and the six world powers over Iran’s nuclear program opens today in Moscow, following two inconclusive rounds of talks in Ankara and Baghdad. Diplomats involved in the talks say that the coming two days of talks are not quite the last chance for a diplomatic solution to the gathering crisis, but they are getting uncomfortably close.
As the Guardian puts it: “The absence of tangible progress in the next forty-eight hours will rob diplomacy of much of its remaining credibility and substantially increase the chance of a devastating conflict.”
The Guardian correctly points out that benchmark for success at the two prior rounds was set extremely low:
- In Istanbul in April, the talks were deemed a success “because the Iranian delegation showed up and said it was prepared in principle to talk about the nuclear program.”
- Round two in Baghdad in May made no progress but was said not to have failed because the Iranian negotiator, Saeed Jalili, uttered words to the effect that Tehran was prepared to discuss its current enrichment of U-235 at a 20 percent level of purity
Jalili, however, refused to put forward any concrete proposal outlining the conditions under which Iran would agree to stop enriching uranium to 20 percent. Even worse, he ignored the very specific proposal put on the table by Catherine Ashton, the EU foreign policy chief who heads the group of six’ delegation. That proposal detailed what the world powers would do if Iran agreed to stop enriching uranium to 20 percent, and how Iran needs for enriched uranium for energy and research would be met.
In the weeks which followed the Baghdad meetings, members of the Iranian delegation brazenly denied even having seen the Ashton proposal. Last week, Jalili said that if the six powers delegation would continue to insist that the third round of talks should revolve around the six powers proposal, or on a counter offer by the Iranians, then the Iranian delegation would not show up.
The Iranians have withdrawn this threat, and Western diplomats arriving in Moscow over the weekend insist “that there can be no repeat of Baghdad, where Jalili showed readiness to orate but not to bargain, and that they are not interested in continuing ‘talks for the sake of talks,’” the Guardian reports.
Words and deeds
As observers watch the many rounds of talks, and the many resolutions, one fact remains unchanged: with every passing day, Iran is getting closer to acquiring the wherewithal to build nuclear weapons.
When George W. Bush became president, Iran did not have even one kilogram of enriched uranium. Today, eleven years later, Iran is in possession of 6,300 kg of uranium enriched to 3.5 percent, and more than 150 kg of uranium enriched to 20 percent. In January 2001, Iran had about 450 gas centrifuges, many of which in various stages of disrepair. Today, in Natanz and Qom, Iran operates more than 10,000 centrifuges – centrifuges enriching eight kilograms of uranium a day.
These numbers mean that Iran, today, already has enough fissile material to produce four or five Hiroshima-size nuclear bombs. By summer 2013, it will have enough material to produce seven or eight bombs.
Iran ahs also built 400 missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads. These missiles can reach Israel – and parts of eastern and southern Europe.
As William Broad writes in Sunday’s New York Times, despite the rising hostilities against Iran and its atomic complex — assassinations and cyberattacks, trade bans and oil embargoes, frozen assets and banking prohibitions, among other acts open and covert — one central fact stands pout: “the Iranians have managed to steadily increase their enrichment of uranium and are now raising their production of a concentrated form close to bomb grade.”
On 4 June, the Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS), a non-profit organization which closely follows nuclear proliferation, warned in a new report that Iran’s actions at its Fordo enrichment plant suggested possible plans to make uranium that is highly enriched — that is, purified above 20 percent.
