ImmigrationSenate immigration bill would reduce deficits by $200 billion over decade: CBO
A long-awaited report by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office offered a major victory for the bipartisan Gang of Eight senators and the draft immigration overhaul they drafted: the detailed report finds that the immigration bill now being debated in the Senate would reduce federal deficits by nearly $200 billion over the next decade even with higher spending on border security and government benefits. The report estimates that over the following decade — from 2024 to 2033 — the deficit reduction would be even greater, reaching an estimated $700 billion.
A long-awaited report by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office offered a major victory for the bipartisan Gang of Eight senators and the draft immigration overhaul they drafted: the detailed report finds that the immigration bill now being debated in the Senate would reduce federal deficits by nearly $200 billion over the next decade.
The report shows that the immigration bill will continue to generate savings in future years, even after millions of illegal immigrants become new citizens eligible for health-care and welfare benefits.
Some conservative opponents of the immigration reform bill have argued that the bill would cost the United States billions of dollars. For example, a Heritage Foundation report argued that allowing the eleven million illegal immigrants currently in the United States to become citizens would cost the United States $6.3 trillion over the next five decades. The Heritage analysis arrived at the figure of $6.3 trillion by assuming that, over the next fifty years, immigrants-turned-citizens would receive $9.4 trillion in government benefits and services and pay only $3.1 trillion in taxes.
The CBO analysts concluded the opposite, undercutting a potentially powerful argument against the legislation.
“This report is a huge momentum boost for immigration reform,” said Senator Charles Schumer (D-New York), the lead Democratic negotiator. “This debunks the idea that immigration reform is anything other than a boon to our economy, and robs the bill’s opponents of one of their last remaining arguments.”
The Washington Post reports that the White House welcomed the report, saying in a statement, “Today, we have more proof that bipartisan commonsense immigration reform will be good for economic growth and deficit reduction: this time, in the form of a nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office estimate.”
The 63-page report finds that the Senate’s immigration bill would increase the U.S. population by about 10.4 million people through 2023, and about 16.2 million by 2033.
In addition, about eight million people currently living in the United States illegally would gain legal status under the legislation, the CBO said.
These increases in population would increase spending on federal programs, including tax credits for low-income families, health-care benefits, and law enforcement, CBO found. These costs, however, would be more than offset by an increase in tax revenue stemming from a larger workforce, the agency said. In its second decade, when people currently living illegally in the United States would become eligible for federal benefits, the legislation would reduce deficits by as much as $1 trillion, the CBO said.
The New York Times notes that the report comes at a key moment in the effort to reform U.S. immigration laws.
The Senate began voting Tuesday on amendments to the bill, which Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nevada has vowed to bring to a final vote by the Fourth of July recess.
In the House, Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) invoked the “Hastert rule” — an unofficial principle named for J. Dennis Hastert, a former Republican speaker who would rarely allow a vote on a bill that did not have the support of a majority of his conference. Boehner told his rank and file in a private meeting Tuesday that he did not intend to hold a vote on an immigration package that does not have the support of a majority of House Republicans.
Boehner has violated the Hastert rule several times this year — for example, to help avert a fiscal showdown, provide relief for victims of Hurricane Sandy, and pass the Violence Against Women Act – but in Tuesday he said he would not take up an immigration bill without the support of a majority of his party.
“I have no intention of putting a bill on the floor that will violate the principles of our majority and divide our conference,” he said.
The concerns of House Republicans focus primarily on border security and the proposed path to citizenship for illegal immigrants, and it may well be the case that in order to bring more House Republicans to support the bill, some of its provisions would have to be tweaked to a point that it may begin to lose the support of Democrats.
