FirefightingStudy finds more spending on fire suppression may lead to bigger fires
Researchers found that fire management can fall into the firefighting trap: Energy and resources are spent mostly on fire suppression — putting out fires in the moment — while less attention is devoted to fire prevention, such as clearing brush and building fire lanes during the off-season. After severe fires, policymakers funnel even more funds into fire suppression for the next season, but this attention to fire suppression may undermine prevention efforts. The result, counterintuitively, is even worse fires the following season, due to the buildup of fire-prone materials such as dried tinder and dead trees. The researchers emphasize balancing fire suppression with prevention measures.
The “firefighting trap” is a term often used by business managers to describe a shortsighted cycle of problem-solving: dealing with “fires,” or problems, as they arise, but failing to address the underlying cause, thereby increasing the chance that the same problem will crop up in the future.
Researchers at MIT’s Engineering Systems Division have now looked at the original inspiration for this “quick-fix” management strategy: firefighting itself. They combined regional fire data, such as the number of fires and the amount of land burned per year, with interviews conducted with fire managers, policymakers, and academics to draw up a model illustrating the relationships that contribute to forest-fire management.
Much like in business, they found fire management can fall into the firefighting trap: Energy and resources are spent mostly on fire suppression — putting out fires in the moment — while less attention is devoted to fire prevention, such as clearing brush and building fire lanes during the off-season.
In particular, the team identified a factor that exacerbates the firefighting trap: instinctive, automatic reactions to particularly damaging fire seasons. They found that after severe fires, policymakers — driven by public pressure — funnel more funds into fire suppression for the next season. While this may put people temporarily at ease, this attention to fire suppression may undermine prevention efforts. The result, counterintuitively, is even worse fires the following season, due to the buildup of fire-prone materials such as dried tinder and dead trees.
“We’ve done the analysis and found that this political effect is a regular thing, and you have to figure out how to break the cycle,” says Richard de Neufville, a professor of civil and environmental engineering and engineering systems at MIT.
De Neufville and graduate student Ross Collins describe their model in a paper published in the Journal of Environmental Management.
Portugal’s fires as a case study
The model is based on fire-management practices in Portugal, and is part of a project sponsored by the MIT Portugal Program. The country has historically had a severe fire problem — as well as a large stake in managing fires, since a significant fraction of the country’s exports come from the timber industry.
Between 1980 and 2010, the number of fires in the country increased from 4,000 to 35,000 per year. During this period, the amount of land burned rose, on average, from 180,000 acres to 375,000 acres per year nationwide.
De Neufville points out that the impact of forest
