Nuclear powerNations' nuclear ambitions not discouraged by few suppliers
Twenty-nine countries are considering constructing their first nuclear power plant. There are doubts as to which of these nuclear “newcomer” countries can actually succeed and join the thirty-one countries that already operate nuclear reactors. If even half of the national plans for nuclear power plants materialize, the geography of nuclear energy would radically change and could revitalize a stagnant industry. But given the obstacles to starting a national nuclear power program even for rich and stable countries, it’s not likely to happen quickly elsewhere.
UN inspectors descend on Iran last month to visit the Arak heavy water plant, and engineers at the wrecked Fukushima nuclear power plants in Japan attempt one of the most challenging nuclear salvage operations ever. But below the headlines is a potential expansion of nuclear energy not seen since the 1970s and 80s.
According to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the UN’s international nuclear watchdog, 29 countries are considering constructing their first nuclear power plant. There are doubts as to which of these nuclear “newcomer” countries can actually succeed and join the 31 countries that already operate nuclear reactors. One thing’s for sure: these countries will need to import the technology and most of the skilled manpower required from existing nuclear operators to get their programs off the ground.
But newcomers to nuclear energy have found that this is a market with few suppliers. According to last year’s Global Energy Assessment, only twelve companies in just eight countries have the capacity to construct the pressure vessels which are central to the construction of a nuclear power plant. So, while nuclear power can shield countries from the price volatility of gas and coal — the main competitors to nuclear-generated electricity — those states wishing to deploy it must deal with an industry with the most concentrated supply chain of any of the major energy sources today.
Plenty of buyers, few suppliers
However, according to a study from 2011, very few newcomers have the capacity and motivation necessary to build a nuclear power plant. Of the thirty countries with operating nuclear power plants today, all were started before 1986, the year of the fateful Chernobyl accident. Historically, countries started nuclear power programs to increase electricity generation in response to rising demand. Most of these countries were rich and politically stable with economies big enough to absorb the necessary state investment.
But few countries match this profile — in fact a third of newcomer states rank among the fifty most unstable countries in the world such as Bangladesh, Nigeria, and Egypt. There are only a few examples of nuclear power programs that began during periods of political instability, and those went along with the pursuit of nuclear weapons (in Argentina, Brazil, India, and Pakistan). This gives some indication of the degree of political commitment required to overcome investor anxiety in the face of an unpredictable political landscape.
