Infrastructure protectionBay Area’s infrastructure more resilient, but a major tremor would paralyze region’s economy

Twenty-five years ago, the San Francisco Bay Area suffered the 6.9 magnitude Loma Prieta earthquake, which killed sixty-three people, injured 3,700, destroyed 366 businesses and 11,000 homes, and caused $6 billion in property damage. Since then, bridges and roads have been rebuilt to withstand more powerful quakes, but seismic safety experts say more could be done to protect property and human life.

According to a Bay Area News Group survey, more than $22 billion in infrastructure upgrades have made the Bay Area safer and more resilient. Major water pipes have been designed to bend, not break; bridges and overpasses are more reliable, but the region’s readiness to recover from a major earthquake receives a C- grade. “A lot has been done,” said Stanford civil engineer Anne Kiremidjian. “But to get a B, there’s a lot more to be done. Our entire region is a very complicated system, and it all has to function together.”

A major earthquake is not likely completely to destroy the Golden Gate Bridge or other major infrastructure developments. Instead, the Bay Area’s $535 billion a year economy will come to a halt for months and even years due to weakened critical infrastructure, so local officials are looking to shorten the recovery time. If a major earthquake occurs, the region will face up to $200 billion in residential and commercial property damage, according to Menlo Park’s Risk Management Solutions. Losses from Hurricane Katrina totaled $120 billion. “I can’t imagine it being left in shambles. I can see the Bay Area pulling itself together and rebuilding,” Kiremidjian said. “But by losing some of our infrastructure, we can lose some of our economic base.”

TechWire highlights the power, water, communications, fuel, and transportation sectors as critical priorities to helping the Bay Area quickly recover from the next major earthquake. Since Loma Prieta, Pacific Gas and Electric Company has installed earthquake-resistant electrical equipment, elastic metal gas transmission lines, and automatic shut-off gas valves in fault areas. After the deadly San Bruno pipeline explosion in 2010, however, thousands of miles of small gas distribution pipes are still being replaced, leaving broken gas vulnerable to ignite fires as they did during the recent Napa quake.

The Santa Clara Valley Water District, East Bay Municipal Utility District, and the San Francisco Public Utilities Commission are upgrading major tunnels and pipeline systems, even rebuilding dams, but thousands of miles of smaller distribution pipes have been ignored. The Bay Area’s telecommunications systems, dominated by AT&T and Verizon, have been declared up to date by their respective firms, but citing privacy concerns, private telecommunications firms have refused to disclose how their cellphone networks would be affected under a major earthquake.

The Bay Area’s five refineries, which happen to be private, are vulnerable in a major Hayward Fault quake, yet they refuse to release details of their seismic retrofits. All five refineries meet the state’s requirements to prevent catastrophic releases, but they are not required to assess the risk of shutdowns that may limit fuel production, according to Contra Costa County Hazardous Materials director Randy Sawyer. On transportation, some major bridges and overpasses have been retrofitted, but much work is still needed on the Golden Gate Bridge, which is undergoing a retrofit that began in 1997 and might be finished in 2021, as well as the Bay Area’s 401 smaller street bridges. 

All five critical sectors depend on each other. According to TechWire, “telecommunication needs power. Power system repairs need fuel. Fuel deliveries need roads. If too many links break, the Bay Area’s booming economy could falter.”