TerrorismU.S. security officials share a sober view of terrorism challenge

U.S. counterterrorism analysts have painted a pessimistic picture of the years to come, saying the threats from terrorism will continue to challenge the United States.

Director of national intelligence James Clapper, in a recent congressional testimony, said terrorism trend lines are worse “than at any other point in history.” Maj. Gen. Michael Nagata, commander of U.S. Special Operations forces in the Middle East, told participants on a counterterrorism strategy call that he considers the Islamic State (ISIS) a greater menace than al-Qaeda has ever been. Michael Morell, the former deputy director of the CIA, told audiences at a New York police terrorism conference that he doubts his generation would live to see the end of al-Qaeda and its offshoots. “This is long term,” he said. “My children’s generation and my grandchildren’s generation will still be fighting this fight.”

This attitude contrasts with the feelings most Americans had after the killing of Osama bin Laden in 2011 and the dawn of the Arab Spring, which was initially seen as a first step in a path toward democracy in the Middle East. For U.S. security officials, those optimistic views have evaporated – even as some note that counterterrorism work thrives on pessimism and involves planning for worst-case scenarios.

Tampa Bay Times notes that among the reasons for alarm shared in intelligence circles are the growth of the Islamic State, the influx of foreign fighters with Western passports joining militant groups, the deteriorating security conditions in Libya, and the fall of the U.S.-backed government in Yemen — which could turn both countries into havens for radical Islamist groups — and the recent announcement by Boko Haram of its allegiance to ISIS.

Still, some voices in the intelligence community are more optimistic, claiming the concern over terrorism is overblown. They say that today’s terror groups are more focused on securing territory than launching transnational plots. ISIS is primarily occupied with spreading its influence throughout the Middle East as it acquires more land in Syria and Iraq, while Boko Haram seeks to establish a caliphate in Nigeria.

Paul Pillar, the former deputy director of the CIA’s Counterterrorism Center, argues that growing pessimism among counterterrorism officials is partly a result of stress from over a decade of U.S. military involvement in the Middle East. “Everyone should take a deep breath,” Pillar wrote in a 2014 article.

“There are people who are alarmed and bewildered. There are also a lot of experts who don’t think this is the end of the world,” said Daniel Benjamin, a Dartmouth College professor who served as the Coordinator for Counterterrorism at the U.S. State Department. “More people have thrown in their lot with the extremists than has been the case before. But the numbers are relatively small, and our own security is much less imperiled than has been claimed.”

John McLaughlin, a former CIA deputy director, disagrees. He argues that even if the prospect of a major terror attack on the West is slim, the risk is accumulating rapidly. “You’ve got a much bigger counterterrorism problem than you had a few years ago,” said McLaughlin. Terrorist groups “have never had territory of this magnitude. Never had this much money. Never this much access to Western passport holders.”