SyriaRussia distancing itself from a weakening Assad
Middle East analysts and reliable sources within several governments and intelligence services in the region say that there are growing signs of a major shift in Russia’s position toward the regime of Bashar al-Assad, reflecting the conclusion among close advisers to President Vladimir Putin that the Assad regime, which has suffered a series of painful defeats since January, cannot be saved, and that continued Russian support for it would undermine other objectives Russia is pursuing in the region. These sources told the London-based Arabic-language newspaperAsharq Al-Awsat that the Russia policy change could be described as a “dramatic U-turn,” with Moscow no longer hiding the fact that it is contemplating a “future without Assad” for Syria. Russia has withdrawn more than 100 military advisers, technical support professionals, and diplomats from Syria, and has cut down the number of employees at its embassy in Damascus, leaving only essential staff. Since late February, Russia no longer ships military supplies to the Syrian military, and Russian military technical personnel has been pulled out of Syria, making it impossible for Russia to abide by the maintenance contracts with Syria for the Sukhoi aircraft, the mainstay of the Syria air force. There have been increasing signs that the Assad regime is disintegrating, with Assad family members and relatives, and businessmen and high-ranking members of the Alawite community, fleeing Damascus.
Middle East analysts and reliable sources within several governments and intelligence services in the region say that there are growing signs of a major shift in Russia’s position toward the regime of Bashar al-Assad, reflecting the conclusion among close advisers to President Vladimir Putin that the Assad regime, which has suffered a series of painful defeats since January, cannot be saved, and that continued Russian support for it would undermine other objectives Russia is pursuing in the region.
These sources told the London-based Arabic-language newspaperAsharq Al-Awsat that the Russia policy change could be described as a “dramatic U-turn,” with Moscow no longer hiding the fact that it is contemplating a “future without Assad” for Syria.
Russia and Iran have been the staunchest supporters of the Assad regime, but the sources say that in addition to public comments by Russian officials, there have been other, more substantive changes in Russia’s stance toward the Syrian regime, indicating a major shift in Russia’s regional strategy.
Western diplomatic sources, who spoke with Asharq Al-Awsat on condition of anonymity, told the newspaper that in a recent closed-door meeting of high-level European security officials which was convened to discuss ways to tackle to growing threat of trans-border terrorism, the Russian delegation was asked about Moscow’s view of the possibility of a Syria “after Assad.”
The leading Russian representative said that “what concerns Russia is to safeguard its strategic interests and secure the future of minorities” in Syria, as well as ensuring the country remained united.
The sources said that the Russian representative left a clear impression with the participants in the meeting — who are familiar with the Russian position on Syria since they have been dealing with the issue for four years now – that Russia was no longer concerned with the Assad regime itself, and that the fate of the regime and the role Assad should or should not play after a negotiated end to the civil war, was of no interest to Russia. The conference participants “were shocked by the admission, which would represent the first of its kind from a Russian official,” Asharq Al-Awsat reports.
Russians leave Syria
The newspaper reported on Saturday that Syrian opposition sources noted that over the past three weeks, Russia has withdrawn more than 100 military advisers, technical support professionals, and diplomats and flew them back to Moscow from the Latakia airport.
