New study says rail transport of toxic materials is relatively safe

Manchester, Massachusetts-based consulting firm Toffler Associates concluded that “the threat of a terrorist attack on a TIH [Toxic Inhalation Hazards] rail shipment, while real, is much more modest than many assert.” The conclusion comes at the end of a new study by the firm, titled “Creating A Secure Future: Understanding and Addressing the Threat to TIH Rail Cargoes.”

According to Toffler Associates, “Since September 11, 2001, many have suggested that potential terrorist attacks on freight trains transporting TIH pose a grave threat to the American public, and suggested that the rail industry, Federal government, local communities, and others should take a range of actions in response.” In the view of the study, “Well-meaning concern about the potential consequences of such an attack is obscuring some important facts about the threat and painting a picture of the threat that we believe does not conform to reality.”

One thing many fail to appreciate, according to the study, is that the complexity of the freight rail system, and some specific intrinsic attributes of freight rail operations, make successful attacks against TIH rail cargoes considerably less of a risk than some observers believe. At the same time, relatively few terrorist organizations possess the capabilities required successfully to mount such attacks. “More action is needed to make the system more secure,” a Toffler Associates spokesman said, “but the system already is more secure than many believe.”

The Toffler Associates study was sponsored by rail industry interests and by internal research funds. The firm said that to help ensure objectivity, a draft report was subjected to a blind assessment by independent third-party reviewers and revised to address factual gaps and other issues the reviewers noted.

The consulting firm founded by Alvin (“The Third Wave”) Toffler and his wife Heidi.