Scientists warn solar storms could be "global Hurricane Katrina"
trillion in damage.
Professor Beddington said, “The potential vulnerability of our systems has increased dramatically, whether it is the smart grid in our electricity system or the ubiquitous use of GPS systems.”
The increasing reliance on these electrical systems comes as the sun is entering a phase of its eleven year solar cycle that is expected to generate a significant number of solar flares and electromagnetic storms. The sun’s cycle is set to peak in 2013 after one of its quietest periods in fifty years.
“Space weather has to be taken seriously. We’ve had a relatively quiet period of space weather and we expect that quiet period to end,” Professor Beddington said.
Lubchenco echoed his thoughts saying, “Clearly this is something we need to take seriously. That particular event (the recent solar flare) was not a very serious one, but as we enter a period of higher solar activity it is reasonable to expect more and more events and they may vary in magnitude.”
“This is an area that we’re beginning to pay much more attention to, not only because we are entering a solar maximum, but because so much more of our technology is vulnerable than was the case even ten years ago when we had the last solar maximum,” she added.
To minimize damage from solar storms Professor Beddington said, “There are two things we need to be thinking about. We need to think about prediction – the ability to categorize and give warning about when particular types of space weather is likely to occur. The second is about engineering. Thinking about particular sectors and their vulnerability to particular types of space weather – that is a complicated issue and we need to think hard about how to do that.”
Currently the only early warning system in place is a fourteen year old satellite that can detect the potential magnitude of the solar storm that is heading towards the Earth.
Due to the speed at which these particles travel, the satellite can only provide a warning twenty minutes in advance of the storm hitting the Earth.
“If it takes twenty hours to go from the Sun to Earth, it’s going to take about twenty minutes to go from that spacecraft to Earth. So our last warning is a twenty minute warning, which will tell us how big, how strong, how nasty that storm might be,” said Dr. Bogdan.
“The trouble is, it’s fourteen years old and what keeps me awake at night is worrying about whether that satellite would be running next morning when I get up,” he said.