Energy futuresSwiss nuclear energy phase-out possible
In the wake of Germany’s decision to abandon nuclear power generation, other countries have also been examining that option; a respected Swiss research center looked into the mater, finding that restructuring the Swiss energy system without nuclear power by 2050 is in principle technologically possible and economically manageable
Swiss anti-nuclear demonstrators // Source: lunaticoutpost.com
In the wake of Germany’s decision to abandon nuclear power generation, other countries have also been examining that option. A respected Swiss research center looked into the mater, finding that restructuring the Swiss energy system without nuclear power by 2050 is in principle technologically possible and economically manageable. It will, however, demand a concerted effort by the whole of society. This is the conclusion reached by ETH Zurich researchers in a study they presented at the Energy Talks 2011. Over the past few months, a group of researchers at the Energy Science Center (ESC) of ETH Zurich have carried out an intensive examination of whether the available options will enable Switzerland to scope out a medium-term energy future without nuclear power, as decided by the Swiss Federal Council in May. Their answer was “Yes.”
A step-by step restructuring of Switzerland’s energy systems during the coming years and decades will require great efforts by all areas of society. Nevertheless, a phase-out is not only technologically possible but would also enable positive long-term growth in all sectors of the economy. The study examined the period up to 2050. The researchers presented the most important results of the study (see box) at the Energy Talks 2011 at ETH Zurich on 2 September 2011.
An ETH Zurich release reports that the unalterable boundary conditions applying to the ETH Zurich researchers’ modeling calculations are that the global climate targets — a maximum warming of two degrees centigrade — must be complied with. For Switzerland this means reducing annual per capita CO2 emissions from the 5.2 percent to less than two tons by 2050 and to one ton toward the end of the century.
These targets require that, by 2050, Switzerland must achieve, among other things, CO2-free building heating systems, efficient, partly electrified mobility, and minimal CO2 emission in electricity generation, all developments that are expected to be necessary and possible.
One of the biggest challenges facing the studies was to make plausible forecasts of the future electricity supply, which turn out differently depending on economic growth, population development and efficiency increases. For this purpose, the researchers calculated three demand scenarios and predict that, in 2050, Switzerland will have a gross electricity production of between 67 and 92 terawatt-hours (TWh). The most likely “medium” scenario assumes an annual electricity demand of around eighty TWh.
According to Konstantinos Boulouchos, coordinating author of the ETH Zurich study and Professor of Aerothermochemistry and
