Swiss nuclear energy phase-out possible

Combustion Systems, it is clear that hydroelectric power, which amounts to just under 50 percent of total electricity generation and has limited potential for expansion, will continue to make an important base-load contribution. If the remaining forty TWh is to be provided without nuclear energy, this will need a major expansion in new renewable energy sources, mainly photovoltaic, followed by the localized utilization of biomass and finally geothermal energy. According to the ETH Zurich researchers, flexible gas-fired power stations or electricity imports will be indispensable to cover demand peaks, at least in the short term. Foreseeable technological development, however, should enable, from 2020 to 2025 onward, the construction of combined gas-fired power stations in which the CO2 produced can be captured and stored.

Energy efficiency is of key importance for the successful implementation of sustainable energy production without nuclear power and with as few fossil energy sources as possible. Göran Andersson, Professor of Electricity Power Systems and High Voltage Engineering and one of the authors of the ETH Zurich study, says, “Anyone who thinks this just means energy consumption at the consumer’s premises is too short-sighted.” He says that there is an equal need to minimize energy losses in electricity distribution (currently 7 percent) and in storage.

The ETH Zurich researchers see the biggest potential energy saving as being in the area of buildings and mobility, whereby electricity as a proportion of energy production is growing, and electricity will become the backbone of the energy system in the future.

The expansion and optimization of storage facilities and networking on the one hand and advances in control and regulation technology on the other should contribute to handling energy more efficiently. At the same time, there is still great need for research, e.g. in the area of energy metering technology. This specialist discipline, still in its infancy, develops prediction models for wind and photovoltaic electricity in-feeds with the aim of increasing the overall stability of the electricity power network.

In relation to the expansion and restructuring of the electricity network, the ETH Zurich researchers stress that Switzerland must also be seen as an important part of a future European electricity market.

In the ETH Zurich study, Lucas Bretschger, Professor of Resource Economics, analyzed the effects that a progressive restructuring of energy production would have on prosperity and growth. Bretschger concludes that the costs to the national economy of a long-term transformation are small. Although economic development would be retarded slightly compared to growth with the previous energy sources, the ETH Zurich study still predicts positive growth rates (between 0.7 and 1.7 percent).

In the ETH Zurich model, sectors with a large proportion of clean technology and investment, for example, the electrical industry and some areas of the mechanical engineering industry, would benefit to a particularly large extent from a restructuring of the energy system. Despite numerous technical challenges, the authors see opportunities in the energy turnaround above all to re-industrialize Switzerland through the investments and innovations that will be triggered.