Weather found to be a good predictor of epidemics

Detecting and then monitoring epidemic outbreaks is among any government’s key functions, but in areas of the world where disease outbreaks are common, often the financial resources are lacking to do so. But if some planners feel that they cannot hire a fleet of epidemiologists, then perhaps they should consider hiring a team of weathermen (who, we believe, do not charge as much for their services as real scientists.) The reason, say those who urge this approach, is that weather patterns often hold important clues about the likelihood of disease. Heat and moisture, after all, are two of the most critical factors in whether a virus or bacteria spreads rapidly or remains contained within a small geographic area.

Such an approach was used recently in Kenya, where authorities were able to mitigate an outbreak of Rift Valley Fever after NASA researchers alerted them (via systems set up by the World Health Organization and the Food and Agriculture Organization) to exceptionally high sea temperatures and elevated levels of rainfall four months previous. When floods followed, it was clear that, due to the imminent arrival of mosquitoes, an outbreak was likely imminent. “Looking at the weather forecasting and satellite imaging data in November, we were already thinking, ‘Rift,”’ said Dr. Pierre Formenty, a WHO disease expert. With preparations in place, public health officials were able to react quickly once the fever arrived, with perhaps the most critical step being a national ban on animal slaughter despite a looming Islamic holiday that required it. As a result, only 104 Kenyans died, a marked improvement from previous outbreaks.

-read more in this AP report