Western analysts, Israel: Egyptian regime will weather the storm
to make sure of it.”
One reason for the regime’s relative restraint is the fact that the regime knows it no longer controls media coverage: it cannot stop citizens from filming police violence and distributing the clips online. This has not prevented the regime from making every effort to contain information flow.
Internet access has been cut off since Thursday, as has cellular service including text messaging and social media contacts, to prevent crowds from gathering. Reports have emerged of assaults on Al-Jazeera and BBC journalists, and CNN camera equipment being destroyed by police.
Israeli and European analysts, though, emphasize that Egypt, in contrast with Tunisia, has a lot of experience with demonstrations, strikes, and protests, and its official responses in the past have been modulated and took into account international reactions.
Moreover: Egypt has always seen itself — and has been seen by others — as the leader of the Arab Middle East. As leading Israeli analyst Zvi Bare’l notes, the Egyptian regime is well aware of the fact that in finding the appropriate response to the wave of demonstrations it is protecting not only itself — but that it bears responsibility for keeping the post-Tunisia momentum from spreading around the Middle East.
Whether as a result of an Internet-supported mood or the relative restraint of the Egyptian regime’s response, the demonstrations kept growing despite of an order Tuesday night to end the demonstrations. Still, Bare’l writes:
The Egyptian protest will not change the regime, but it might improve quality of life and push President Hosni Mubarak to be more serious about his campaign for the September elections. Egyptian experts believe Mubarak might announce plans to run for another term, thus eliminating the excuse some people used to protest: his intention to bequeath his seat to his son.
Coming back to the Israeli and European experts: There is no doubt that for decades now, Tunisia, Egypt, Lebanon, Yemen, and other Muslim and Arab countries have been accumulating social, political, and economic explosives. It is thus understandable that people look at the Middle East and believe that a single spark could ignite a large-scale conflagration. This impression is deceptive, the experts say. Each country has a different relationship between the regime and the people, and each has its own “shock absorbers” — and, as a result, popular unrest has different outcomes in different countries.
Also noteworthy is the late arrival of the Muslim Brotherhood in the current turmoil.
The radical group had not taken a leading role in the uprising until now, and Israel is “not concerned” about a Brotherhood takeover of Egypt.
